The U.S. housing market is undergoing a historic shift. For the first time since records began in 2013, there are 33.7% more sellers than buyers—an estimated 1.9 million sellers compared to 1.5 million buyers, or roughly 490,000 more sellers. This unprecedented imbalance signals a strong buyer’s market, and experts at Redfin predict home prices will drop 1% by the end of 2025. Here’s what this means for buyers and sellers, along with key insights into regional trends and property types.
A Historic Imbalance in the Housing Market
Never before have sellers outnumbered buyers by such a wide margin. Just a year ago, the gap was only 6.5%, and two years ago, buyers held the upper hand. The current data, as of April 2025, shows:
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Sellers: The highest number since March 2020, with 1.9 million active listings.
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Buyers: The lowest since April 2020, when the pandemic halted the market, with only 1.5 million estimated buyers.
This shift is driven by several factors:
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High Costs Deter Buyers: Home prices rose 1.6% year over year to a median of $431,931 in April, while mortgage rates averaged 6.73%—more than double the pandemic-era low. Monthly housing payments hit record highs, pricing many buyers out.
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Economic Uncertainty: Tariff talks, layoffs, and federal policy changes are dampening demand. A Redfin survey found nearly 1 in 4 Americans are postponing major purchases due to tariffs.
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Easing Mortgage Rate Lock-In: Homeowners with ultra-low pandemic-era rates are now selling due to life changes like job relocations, return-to-office mandates, or divorces. The shock of higher rates has also worn off since 2022.
Redfin Senior Economist Asad Khan notes, “The balance of power has shifted toward buyers, but many sellers are still holding out for top dollar. As homes sit longer and fewer buyers show up, sellers will need to adjust expectations.”
What This Means for Sellers and Buyers
For Sellers: Act Now or Risk Lower Prices
Time is not on sellers’ side. With 44% of April listings sitting for 60 days or longer—the highest April share since 2020—stale inventory is piling up. Many sellers are overpricing based on outdated comps from the recent seller’s market or trying to recoup peak-market investments. Redfin’s advice:
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Sell sooner rather than later: Home prices may fall further as demand slows, especially in the summer.
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Adjust pricing or improve your home: If your listing has been stagnant for over a month, consider price reductions or cosmetic upgrades to attract buyers.
For Buyers: Growing Opportunities
While high costs continue to price many out, buyers still in the market have more leverage. With falling prices, rising wages, and stable mortgage rates, purchasing power is set to increase. Homes that were out of reach six months ago may now be negotiable, with sellers offering concessions or accepting lower offers.
Regional Trends: Buyer’s Markets Dominate
Of the 50 most populous U.S. metro areas, 31 are buyer’s markets (over 10% more sellers than buyers), 12 are balanced, and only 7 are seller’s markets. The Sun Belt and West Coast lean heavily toward buyers, while the Midwest and East Coast have more balanced or seller-friendly markets.
Top 10 Buyer’s Markets (April 2025)
|
Metro Area |
Sellers vs Buyers (% Difference) |
Sellers |
Buyers |
Median Sale Price |
Y/Y Price Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Miami, FL |
197.7% | 21,672 | 7,280 | $574,696 | 5.6% |
|
West Palm Beach, FL |
182.0% | 18,075 | 6,409 | $513,683 | 2.7% |
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Fort Lauderdale, FL |
179.3% | 21,018 | 7,525 | $451,709 | 1.2% |
|
Austin, TX |
124.1% | 17,386 | 7,757 | $433,990 | -3.0% |
|
Jacksonville, FL |
119.5% | 14,479 | 6,598 | $368,311 | -3.4% |
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Tampa, FL |
118.6% | 26,917 | 12,313 | $371,028 | -1.3% |
|
Phoenix, AZ |
100.6% | 32,418 | 16,159 | $452,290 | -2.1% |
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Las Vegas, NV |
92.1% | 13,814 | 7,192 | $448,605 | 2.4% |
|
Orlando, FL |
92.0% | 19,555 | 10,184 | $407,411 | 0.8% |
|
Nashville, TN |
90.0% | 14,935 | 7,859 | $467,178 | 0.0% |
Miami leads as the strongest buyer’s market, with nearly 3 sellers for every buyer. Florida dominates, with six of the top 10 markets, followed by Texas (Austin). These regions saw a pandemic-era boom, but new construction, rising insurance costs, and soaring HOA fees are now flooding the market with listings.
Tim Harper, a Redfin Premier agent in Daytona Beach, FL, says, “Buyers can often get 5% off the list price and $10,000 in concessions. Sellers need to ensure their home stands out with repairs and realistic pricing.”
Top Seller’s Markets
Newark, NJ, is the strongest seller’s market, with 47.1% fewer sellers than buyers, driving a 12.2% price increase—the largest among major metros. Other seller’s markets include Nassau County, NY, and Cleveland, OH.
Most Balanced Market
St. Louis, MO, is the most balanced, with 1.3% fewer sellers than buyers, reflecting steady demand and supply.
Condo Market: A Buyer’s Dream
The condo market is even more buyer-friendly, with 83.5% more sellers than buyers (259,137 sellers vs. 141,223 buyers). By comparison, single-family homes have 27.8% more sellers, and townhouses 33%. Rising HOA fees, insurance costs, and special assessments are pushing condo owners to sell, especially in Florida. Condo prices rose just 0.4% year over year, lagging single-family homes’ 1.5% gain.
Historical Context: Imbalances Predict Price Shifts
History shows that when sellers outnumber buyers, prices cool. In 2018, after mortgage rates hit 4.87%, sellers outnumbered buyers by 9.4%, and price growth slowed to 2% within months. Today’s larger imbalance suggests even stronger downward pressure on prices, which have already slowed to 1.6% annual growth from 6.2% last spring.
Methodology
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Sellers: Measured by active MLS listings in April 2025.
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Buyers: Estimated using a model based on pending sales and the typical time from a buyer’s first tour to purchase, adjusted for seasonality.
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Market Definitions: Buyer’s market (>10% more sellers), seller’s market (>10% fewer sellers), balanced (within ±10%).
For detailed metro-level data and full methodology, contact the authors at Redfin.
Final Takeaways
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Buyers: Hold firm—your negotiating power is growing, and prices may fall further.
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Sellers: Price realistically and act quickly to avoid steeper losses as the market cools.
The U.S. housing market is at a turning point. Stay informed, and make your move wisely.
Data sourced from Redfin’s housing market analysis, April 2025.
Eugene Prospero | S.179605
Virtue Real Estate | Darin Marques Group